Despite well understood long and variable lags, bond markets are expressing that interest rates might be too restrictive, particularly in the US. Or read another way, although interest rates aren’t nominally high by historical standards, after a decade of near zero interest rates, there might be too much debt to support a normalisation of interest rates without breaking something.
Bond market pessimism has been fanned by Central Banks purposefully engineering a slow-down. We discuss our views on increasing recession probabilities.
China was hoped to be the economic growth engine in 2023. As the year progresses things are looking increasingly ’bitter‘. Stimulus is the watchword…
Fixed income investing is back, and longer duration exposures again provide traditional portfolio diversification benefits.